"It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope is also predictable. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, that would mean that if we stay locked down, we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.
As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.
There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.
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As we are allowed to move around our communities more freely and be in contact with more people in more places more regularly, the risks to ourselves and our family are significant. Even if you are gung-ho for reopening and resuming business as usual, do your part and wear a mask to reduce what you release into the environment. It will help everyone, including your own business."
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https://www.erinbromage.com/
Who is the author?
Erin S. Bromage, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Dr. Bromage graduated from the School of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences James Cook University, Australia where his research focused on the epidemiology of, and immunity to, infectious disease in animals. His Post-Doctoral training was at the College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the Comparative Immunology Laboratory of late Dr. Stephen Kaattari.
Dr. Bromage’s research focuses on the evolution of the immune system, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protection from infectious disease, and the design and use of vaccines to control infectious disease in animals. He also focuses on designing diagnostic tools to detect biological and chemical threats in the environment in real-time.
Dr. Bromage joined the Faculty of the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth in 2007 where he teaches courses in Immunology and Infectious disease, including a course this semester on the Ecology of Infectious Disease which focused on the emerging SARS-CoV2 outbreak in China.
Found via Twitter https://twitter.com/lit_hum/status/1258748858630356993?s=09
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| Dr Erin Bromage: "The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them" |
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1. We don’t know the number of virus particles required, but it could be much less than 1000. Consider that R-naught is thought to be 3-5 for COVID-19, more like 1.5 for the flu.
ReplyDelete2. We don’t know how many virus particles the infected spread per breath. He correctly references a 2008 paper on influenza showing only 3-20 per breath, but it was a very small study - 12 people! It may be much worse for COVID-19, given the high R-naught.
3. Most of the risk probably comes from touching infected surfaces, which he mentions only in passing. A spreadsheet tool referenced in https://medium.com/swlh/so-youre-going-outside-a-physics-based-coronavirus-infection-risk-estimator-for-leaving-the-house-d7dcae2746c0 , for an instance I ran in Orange County, CA of a short 20 shopping trip to a grocery store to pick up 10 items gave a 1.8% risk of infection, none of it from breathing, all from contaminated surfaces and objects since they were last disinfected.
In short, the math and information here seem good and complete, but I’m not sure the assumption of the required particles to infect is correct, and not enough attention is given to surface contamination. Just my opinion.
What is the current thinking about airplane travel if all passengers and crew are masked and load is 20-50% of capacity? Thank you
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ReplyDeleteIf people in an enclosed (or office) environment wear masks, how much does that drop the risk? And how much for different types of masks (homemade, surgical, N95, etc)?
ReplyDeleteThis subject needs a lot more study and dissemination of information and knowledge for the public ... how will this proceed ... things are shared here that go much deeper than what is delivered in the news and aired POTUS new conferences.
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