The Guardian: "Falling fertility, debt and AI: is the US headed toward a population crisis?"

"Remember environmentalist Paul Ehrlich’s 1960s-vintage prediction about how overpopulation would deplete the Earth’s resources and condemn millions to starvation? His Malthusian condemnation of humanity’s voracious appetite has kept a grip on the debate over the future of the planet, even scaring the young out of having children.

Ehrlich was wrong. Yet as we have come around to the thought that overpopulation won’t kill us all, we are being walloped by another demographic emergency: we are not having too many kids, we are having too few. This problem is real.

The most recent scare came from government figures released last week suggesting the fall in US fertility – the number of children a woman will have over her lifetime – may be speeding up, hitting a record low of 1.57 in 2025, below the 1.62 projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in January last year.

This is well below the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population, a rate we haven’t hit since the Great Recession of 2008. The population hasn’t started shrinking, but it is getting older fast. While this won’t starve us, it will further erode the rickety foundation of US social stability."

Shared from - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/19/us-population-fertility-rate?CMP=share_btn_url 

Apparently forecasts don't matter until they hit you where it hurts

“From the college perspective, there’s some anxiety right now,” says Joseph DiCarlo, dean of enrollment and director of admissions at Worcester State University, as he looks out over the cavernous exhibition hall. “With a smaller number of students, you’ve got to cast a wider net.”

The number of college students in the state has already fallen since the last peak, in 2012, by more than 45,000, or nearly 9 percent — that’s more than the undergraduate enrollment of the University of Massachusetts Amherst and UMass Boston combined.

Before long, experts predict that higher education institutions, including some represented at this college fair, will begin to tumble down the demographic cliff and close. "

Apparently forecasts don't matter until they hit you where it hurts

Continue reading the article online -> https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/04/09/magazine/massachusetts-colleges-face-enrollment-drop-higher-ed-crisis/

 

How to access the Globe articles via the Franklin Library with your library card

https://www.franklinmatters.org/2025/02/how-to-access-online-resources-with.html

 

In 2020, our State Representative Jeff Roy and I talked about his work on the Higher Education Committee and the issue that colleges and universities faced with declining enrollment

https://www.franklinmatters.org/2020/04/fm-255-state-representative-jeffrey-roy.html

School Committee gets an update on the Comprehensive School Facilities Planning underway in Special Meeting Tuesday (audio)

FM #1163 = This is the Franklin Matters radio show, number 1163 in the series. 

This session of the radio show shares the Franklin MA School Committee Special Meeting conducted March 26 to provide committee members and the community with an update on the Comprehensive School Facilities Planning underway. The meeting was held in the Council Chambers. All seven of the School Committee members were present.

Quick recap:

• Supt Giguere set up for Dr Fran Locker to provide her insights and findings as part of the workshops, she has facilitated

• Capturing the slides with photos (as they were shared), the presentation copy should be posted to the School page in the next day or so. When I find it, I’ll add the link here

The meeting runs about 1 hour and 40 minutes. Let’s listen to the School Committee Special Meeting held on March 26, 2024. Audio link -> https://franklin-ma-matters.captivate.fm/episode/fm-1163-franklin-ma-special-school-committee-mtg-03-26-24

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School Committee page => https://www.franklinps.net/district/school-committee 

Meeting Agenda doc  ->  https://www.franklinma.gov/sites/g/files/vyhlif10036/f/events/sc_special_mtg._agenda_-_3_26_24.pdf 

Supt Giguere overview -> https://www.franklinps.net/sites/g/files/vyhlif4431/f/uploads/csfc_march_2024_update.pdf 

Photo album of the meeting & those slides Dr Locker shared -> https://photos.app.goo.gl/GasFSL4EuKTwduid9 

My notes captured during the meeting via Twitter in one PDF -> https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ahFGCJkEf71dEhqzWJgV6e01tP1Hx70z/view?usp=drive_link 

--------------

We are now producing this in collaboration with Franklin.TV and Franklin Public Radio (wfpr.fm) or 102.9 on the Franklin area radio dial.  

This podcast is my public service effort for Franklin but we can't do it alone. We can always use your help.

 

How can you help?

• If you can use the information that you find here, please tell your friends and neighbors

• If you don't like something here, please let me know

Through this feedback loop we can continue to make improvements. I thank you for listening.

For additional information, please visit Franklinmatters.org/ or www.franklin.news/

If you have questions or comments you can reach me directly at shersteve @ gmail dot com

The music for the intro and exit was provided by Michael Clark and the group "East of Shirley". The piece is titled "Ernesto, manana"  c. Michael Clark & Tintype Tunes, 2008 and used with their permission.

I hope you enjoy!

------------------

You can also subscribe and listen to Franklin Matters audio on iTunes or your favorite podcast app; search in "podcasts" for "Franklin Matters"

Dr Fran Locker presenting to the School Committee

Comprehensive School Facilities Assessment - Status Update March 26, 2024

Throughout the 2023-24 school year, we have been working towards developing a master plan through the Comprehensive Facilities Assessment Subcommittee. Our goal is to provide a short-term and long-term vision that utilizes our assets strategically and fiscally responsibly. 

We are in the process of conducting that plan through the comprehensive assessment of school facilities. This is a follow-up to last year‘s redistricting assessment.  It was voted not to redistrict then and recommended that we broaden our scope and look at the district as a whole. 

Since then, we have updated our student enrollment forecast using the 2020 census data with post-pandemic figures using McKibbon and associates who conducted the last forecast.  We have also used the KBA Facilities Assessment Report 2020 as a foundation upon which to develop further.  This report outlined several options for Franklin's future. Some of these options were deemed not viable at the time due to the need for a long-term master plan.  KBA Architect Kate Jessup conducted an educational adequacy assessment of our buildings to determine the suitability of each school and the spaces within it. For example, more information was needed to account for specialized programming within the district. 

Dr. Fran Locker and Associates have been overseeing all aspects of this work with the goal of delivering a master plan with recommendations to the School Committee this Spring, 2024.  They most recently facilitated Portrait of a Graduate Application and Educational Visioning workshops in March with representative stakeholder groups.  

On March 26th, Dr. Locker will provide an update to the entire School Committee on the process. We will then host stakeholder forums in early April, which will serve as a mechanism to gather additional input from various stakeholder groups.  Forums are scheduled to take place in April 2024.

This spring, Locker and Associates will develop a final report that will include organizational options to best educate all students and present recommendations to the School Committee. 

Once again, our goal is to provide a short-term and long-term vision for the Franklin Public Schools by utilizing our assets strategically and fiscally responsibly.  While facilities assessment and budget are intertwined, it’s important to emphasize that school reorganization or closure alone will not address the district's funding deficit. However, they could play an integral role in developing a more sustainable budget.  

We are committed to this process, which will help us plan for the future and explore all options. 

We will continue to share information as we move forward, including posting all presentations and reports here.

Find the presentations and reports online ->   https://www.franklinps.net/district/comprehensive-school-facilities-assessment

Comprehensive School Facilities Assessment - Status Update March 26, 2024

First 2024 meeting of the Comprehensive Facilities Planning Subcommittee gets understanding timeline for end of year report can be met (audio)

FM #1126 = This is the Franklin Matters radio show, number 1126 in the series. 

This session of the radio show shares the FPS Comprehensive Facilities Planning Subcommittee meeting held on Jan 3, 2024. The meeting was held in the 3rd floor training room. 

Participating in the room: D Callaghan, A Charles, Supt. Giguere, Dr. Dutch, Dr. Rogers, Mike D’Angelo. Participating remotely: E Gallagher

Quick recap:

• District did issue an RFP with pricing separately, once qualifications were confirmed, Fran Locker & Assoc selected for visioning and planning aspects to work with Kaestle Boos report as baseline

• D’Angelo provides info on building work around the Town, all the schools built; Across the three complexes, Remington Jefferson roof needs to be placed; fire alarm system, heating/cooling systems all need to be replaced (except interior air handlers); Similar story for the other two complexes, eventually

• Built out a ten year projection for the facilities across the district with details on the items for replacement, etc. McKibben demographics updated with 2020 census info, presentation coming to School Committee. Educational visioning exercise (Locker & Assoc), tour of buildings scheduled to view educational spaces and utilizations. Kaestle Boos (KBA) report then gets updated with the additional pieces, (visioning), and facilities costing

• Timeline still good to get the report/analysis done before end of this school year

The meeting runs about 45 minutes so let’s listen to the FPS Comprehensive Facilities Planning Subcommittee meeting held on Jan 3, 2024. Audio link -> https://franklin-ma-matters.captivate.fm/episode/fm-1126-fps-comprehensive-school-facility-planning-mtg-01-03-24

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School Committee page => https://www.franklinps.net/district/school-committee 

Meeting Agenda doc  ->  https://www.franklinps.net/sites/g/files/vyhlif4431/f/agendas/comprehensive_facilities_planning_subcom-1_3_24.pdf 

--------------

We are now producing this in collaboration with Franklin.TV and Franklin Public Radio (wfpr.fm) or 102.9 on the Franklin area radio dial.  

This podcast is my public service effort for Franklin but we can't do it alone. We can always use your help.

 

How can you help?

• If you can use the information that you find here, please tell your friends and neighbors

• If you don't like something here, please let me know

Through this feedback loop we can continue to make improvements. I thank you for listening.

For additional information, please visit Franklinmatters.org/ or www.franklin.news/

If you have questions or comments you can reach me directly at shersteve @ gmail dot com

The music for the intro and exit was provided by Michael Clark and the group "East of Shirley". The piece is titled "Ernesto, manana"  c. Michael Clark & Tintype Tunes, 2008 and used with their permission.

I hope you enjoy!

------------------

You can also subscribe and listen to Franklin Matters audio on iTunes or your favorite podcast app; search in "podcasts" for "Franklin Matters"

First meeting of the Comprehensive Facilities Planning Subcommittee gets understanding timeline for end of year report can be met (audio)

Dean College among small colleges struggling with enrollment decline per Boston Globe

"For much of recent history, intimate private colleges and universities have thrived here, as much a part of the region’s identity as tumbledown stone walls and scenic coastlines, the local highways bristling with signs signaling that another quintessential New England campus is just an exit away.

But the business model for the small liberal arts school is much less viable these days, as the population of high school graduates continues to decline and more young people are skeptical of, or unable to bear, the hefty cost of a college degree. Already in Massachusetts, more than 20 colleges closed completely or merged into larger institutions since 2014, according to the state Department of Higher Education.

And industry insiders expect more of the smaller or lesser-known schools to fade away, while a handful of private universities boasting massive endowments will continue to flourish.

Two of the nation’s big credit rating agencies reported dire financial outlooks for the year for the higher education sector: Fitch Ratings says conditions in the sector are “deteriorating,” and Moody’s Investors Service says the outlook is “negative.”

Continue reading at the Boston Globe (subscription maybe required)

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/28/metro/small-private-colleges-business-model/

As has been posted here previously, the demographic trends are/should be well known, school population is declining particularly in the US. There are a variety of reasons all contributing to the decline and some institutions (i.e. small colleges) are going to feel too.

Dean College among small colleges struggling with enrollment decline per Boston Globe

"According to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 threshold"

The declining school enrollment (and overall population) in Franklin is a reflection of a trend seen around the world. We share this infographic from Visual Capitalist:

"At the dawn of the 19th century, the world population hit a big milestone: 1 billion people.

Over the next 220 years, the number grew to eight times that, or the 8 billion people who live on the planet today, with half of the growth occurring since 1975.

This continuous climb in global population has been possible thanks to advancements in healthcare and nutrition. However, the UN forecasts that rapid growth will slow down—and may even stop entirely by 2100—because of falling fertility rates.

What does that mean for modern nation states conditioned to expect a constant influx of new citizens and labor to power their economies? And how can those changing economies adapt to a shrinking population?

To understand that, we need to first untangle fertility rates, and why they’re falling."

Continue reading about the fertility rate decline ->    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-plummeting-fertility-rate/ 

According to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 threshold

FPS Redistricting Advisory Cmte meeting of Feb 7, 2023 (audio)

FM #937 = This is the Franklin Matters radio show, number 937 in the series. 

This session of the radio show shares the Franklin Public Schools Redistricting Advisory Committee Meeting held in hybrid format with folks at the FHS Media Center on Tuesday, February 7, 2023 as well as some members who participated remotely.

Given this was a working session, the major whole group sections of the meeting audio is what is shared here. There is one break in the audio when the breakout discussion was held at each table. The audio for the table breakout is replaced by a brief music interlude.

Quick Recap

• Review of the objectives and timeline

• Presentation on 3 options depicted in a new “storymap”

• Feedback discussed at each table and to be collected via survey form for the committee

• Next steps - public forums scheduled for Mar 7 and Mar 13 with survey form to collect feedback. Both sessions will present same material; one in person, one via remote

• Next advisory meeting Mar 21 to prepare for School Committee presentation scheduled for Apr 25 and School Committee vote scheduled for May 9

The edited meeting audio recording runs about 72 minutes. Let’s listen to whole group discussion position of Redistricting Advisory Committee Meeting of Feb 7

Audio link -> https://franklin-ma-matters.captivate.fm/episode/fm-937-fps-redistricting-advisory-cmte-mtg-02-07-23

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Agenda doc for Feb 7, 2023 meeting

https://www.franklinma.gov/sites/g/files/vyhlif6896/f/events/redistricting_advisory_subcom_2_7_23.pdf 

Redistricting Advisory Committee page ->

https://www.franklinps.net/school-committee/2023-redistricting-advisory-committee 

My notes in one Twitter threader document   

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yLyRq1KAklkXvAIJEUfiSu72zKG_DRZ2/view?usp=share_link 

The photo album shared via Twitter of the pix taken of the meeting and presentation slides https://photos.app.goo.gl/v5bVgM8RrhD2bejP6 

--------------

We are now producing this in collaboration with Franklin.TV and Franklin Public Radio (wfpr.fm) or 102.9 on the Franklin area radio dial.  

This podcast is my public service effort for Franklin but we can't do it alone. We can always use your help.

How can you help?

• If you can use the information that you find here, please tell your friends and neighbors

• If you don't like something here, please let me know

Through this feedback loop we can continue to make improvements. I thank you for listening.

For additional information, please visit Franklinmatters.org/ or www.franklin.news/

If you have questions or comments you can reach me directly at shersteve @ gmail dot com

The music for the intro and exit was provided by Michael Clark and the group "East of Shirley". The piece is titled "Ernesto, manana"  c. Michael Clark & Tintype Tunes, 2008 and used with their permission.

I hope you enjoy!

------------------

You can also subscribe and listen to Franklin Matters audio on iTunes or your favorite podcast app; search in "podcasts" for "Franklin Matters"

FPS Redistricting Advisory Cmte meeting of Feb 7, 2023 (audio)

Franklin Public School Redistricting Analysis - Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Revised December 15th, 2022

Q: What is Redistricting?

A: School attendance zones define school enrollment based on residential address. Simplified, Redistricting is the action of altering school attendance zones.

Q: What is a Redistricting Analysis?

A: A Redistricting Analysis, involves the examination of projected enrollment, facility usage to support instructional capacity, geographical proximity for families and transportation related logistics across the district and town, ensuring an equitable and diverse distribution of students. The Redistricting Analysis process champions community input by soliciting feedback based on data driven scenarios facilitated by the redistricting analysis consultant (Applied Geographics) and presented to the Franklin Public Schools Redistricting Advisory Committee and Franklin Community.

Q: Why are we doing a Redistricting Analysis?

A: The decision to pursue a redistricting analysis was a result of the following findings…

• Franklin’s last redistricting effort was in 2002 with the opening of the Helen Keller/ Annie Sullivan complex, 20 years ago. The needs of the district have altered over time
• Usage of space has evolved to prepare students with the essential skills outlined in the Franklin Public School’s Portrait of a Graduate, promote student engagement and support student learning with a variety of specialized programs designed to meet evolving student needs
• The Davis Thayer School was closed in 2021, Davis Thayer students were then transferred to Helen Keller Elementary school
• Total enrollment is forecasted to decline until 2026 - 2027 and it is anticipated there will be an gradual increase anticipated in 2029 - 2030*

*Referencing the Franklin Public Schools Population and Enrollment McKibben Study (2019)*

Redistricting is a necessary process that allows public school districts to evaluate the distribution of students and optimize facility utilization to best support educational programming within the district for the foreseeable future.

Q: What is the Redistricting Advisory Committee?

A: The Redistricting Advisory Committee will participate in a redistricting analysis of Franklin Public Schools in collaboration with AppGeo Redistricting Analysis Consultant by providing input, feedback, and local context on proposed scenarios to potential updates to attendance boundaries within Franklin. The committee is composed of parents/ guardians, educators, District and building based administration and school committee members.

Q: I’m not on the Redistricting Advisory Committee, how do I provide input?

A: Once scenarios have been workshopped through the Redistricting Advisory Committee, we will present opportunities for public input as part of the Community Feedback phase.

 

Q: Who makes the decision on Redistricting?

A: The final decision regarding redistricting rests with the Franklin School Committee.

Q: When will a decision be made on Redistricting?

A: After facilitating community input and working with the redistricting advisory committee, the Space Needs Subcommittee will present findings and possible recommendations for the School Committee late Spring 2023. The School Committee will make any related decisions thereafter.

Q: Will Schools be closed?

A: There is no predetermined plan for redistricting. The purpose of the redistricting analysis is to provide a thorough examination of district needs. A data driven and community informed process will result in a recommendation(s) that will be presented to the school committee, who will make the final decision regarding redistricting that best serves distinct needs.

Q: Weren’t scenarios for projected enrollment proposed in the 2020 Facilities Assessment Report? Why aren’t we just presenting those scenarios?

A: The 2020 Facilities Assessment Report was completed by our consultant (Kaestle Boos Associates). Some scenarios proposed in the 2020 Facilities Assessment Report may be explored by our redistricting consultant to inform/guide proposed scenarios. The 2020 Facilities Assessment Report did not account for the space required by in-district specialized programming to meet the special education needs of the district which can vary from year to year. The District has done research on the use of each facility to then account for our specialized programs along with our redistricting analysis consultant, to ensure we are completing a comprehensive analysis that considers the impact of our specialized programs.

If you have additional questions, please visit our Redistricting Analysis webpage at www.franklinps.net/district/redistricting-analysis for more information. Additional questions can be directed via email to redistrictinganalysis@franklinps.net.

Franklin Public School Redistricting Analysis - Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Redistricting Advisory Committee holds their Kickoff session Tuesday - 11/15/22 (audio)

FM #879 = This is the Franklin Matters radio show, number 879 in the series. 

This session of the radio show shares the Franklin Public Schools Redistricting Advisory Committee Kickoff Meeting held in the FHS Media Center on Tuesday, November 15, 2022. Some members participated remotely.   

Given this was a working session, the major whole group sections of the meeting audio is what is shared here. There are breaks in the audio when 

• The members at each table introduced themselves

• Time to read the handout before the breakout discussion was provided

• The breakout discussion was held at each table

The breaks are indicated by a few seconds of music then the group discussion resumes

The edit meeting audio recording runs about 55 minutes. Let’s listen to Redistricting Advisory Committee Kick off Meeting

Audio file -> https://franklin-ma-matters.captivate.fm/episode/fm-879-fps-redistricting-advisory-cmte-kickoff-11-15-22

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Kickoff meeting agenda -> https://www.franklinmatters.org/2022/11/reminder-franklin-school-committee.html 

Redistricting Advisory Committee page ->

https://www.franklinps.net/school-committee/2023-redistricting-advisory-committee 

Davis Thayer Facility Analysis page -> (includes links to McKibben demographics and Kaestle Boos Facility Assessment report) https://www.franklinps.net/district/davis-thayer-facilities-analysis

My notes in one Twitter threader document   https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jE0y-NVlHADF3I4LYRUvaAwEfSZIRJG8/view?usp=share_link 

The photo album shared via Twitter of the pix taken of the meeting and presentation slides   https://photos.app.goo.gl/qnVcuezxBXi2T4Hb8 

--------------

We are now producing this in collaboration with Franklin.TV and Franklin Public Radio (wfpr.fm) or 102.9 on the Franklin area radio dial.  

This podcast is my public service effort for Franklin but we can't do it alone. We can always use your help.

How can you help?

• If you can use the information that you find here, please tell your friends and neighbors

• If you don't like something here, please let me know

Through this feedback loop we can continue to make improvements. I thank you for listening.

For additional information, please visit Franklinmatters.org/ or www.franklin.news/

If you have questions or comments you can reach me directly at shersteve @ gmail dot com

The music for the intro and exit was provided by Michael Clark and the group "East of Shirley". The piece is titled "Ernesto, manana"  c. Michael Clark & Tintype Tunes, 2008 and used with their permission.

I hope you enjoy!

------------------

You can also subscribe and listen to Franklin Matters audio on iTunes or your favorite podcast app; search in "podcasts" for "Franklin Matters"

Redistricting Advisory Committee holds their Kickoff session Tuesday