"The Atlantic hurricane season will bring an average number of ocean storms and hurricanes this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said on Thursday.Noaa forecasters estimate 12 to 17 named storms of which five to nine of those will develop into hurricanes and one to four will become major hurricanes during the 1 June to 30 November season.The guidance came as experts considered the possible impacts this year of the El Niño weather system, which can dampen hurricane activity, and increasingly warm ocean temperatures, which can make storms more powerful.“What it boils down to is: which is going to win or do they just cancel each other out and you end up with a near-normal season?” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. “I respect them both.”
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The NOAA press release ->
"NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges."
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook
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| A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA) |
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