“I do think it’s a little bit of a fragile recovery at this point,” Modestino said. “We are by no means out of the woods, but I think it’s an encouraging start and really the next two, three, four months will tell us where we are.”Continue reading the article online (subscription may be required)
Nakosteen noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its report that household surveyors, whose data is used to calculate the unemployment rate, misclassified “a large number” of furloughed workers as employed but absent from work rather than unemployed on temporary layoff as they were instructed.
The bureau’s standard practice is not to change survey data, but if those workers had been classified properly, “the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis),” Friday’s report said.
Like Modestino, Nakosteen urged patience until monthly figures for June and July are available and can indicate if the slight upswing is a trend that will continue or part of an uneven recovery.