"It was never really in doubt. But the first week of Cop28, which ended with a rest day on Thursday, made one crucial fact impossible to ignore: the fossil fuel industry is not planning to go quietly. Far more of its lobbyists are in the UAE than have attended UN climate talks before. One analysis counted 2,456 of them – nearly four times the number registered last year in Egypt.The battle is hotting up over what next week’s report on progress towards the Paris goals, known as the global stocktake, will say. Fossil fuel interests – both corporate and national – are pushing hard to avoid references to the phase-out that would signal the end of their business model and vast profits. They don’t want an energy transition that leads to their demise.Last week, the Guardian revealed that Sultan Al Jaber, who holds the Cop presidency and leads the UAE’s state oil company, recently asserted that “no science” indicates that “a phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C”. Forced on to the defensive, he later said that “the phase-down and phase-out of fossil fuel is inevitable”. But it is the nations at Cop28 that will decide, and there is no guarantee that any such pledge will appear in the final text.One of the key battlegrounds at Cop28 is that of language: whether fossil fuels will be phased “down” or “out”. The choice is either reducing carbon energy sources or getting rid of them entirely. The latter would be preferable, but there are many other battles to be won. There will be haggling over whether a transition to a cleaner future should see fossil fuels “unabated”, with greenhouse gas emissions released directly into the atmosphere, or “abated”, where carbon capture technology and carbon offsets reduce the harm caused. The latter have so far failed to deliver promised benefits, appearing more of a risk than a solution, in enabling the necessity of replacing fossil fuels to be ducked."
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